Restaurant at-home sales growth falls below inflation in March

British restaurant groups have recorded a third consecutive month of below-inflation organic growth in at-home sales during March, according to the latest data from NIQ, as like-for-like sales across the month were 1.9% ahead of the same period in 2025.

This follows modest growth of 2.7% in January and 0.1% in February.

According to the NIQ Hospitality at Home Tracker, the figures suggest consumers are monitoring spending closely in early 2026. Growth remains suppressed as households anticipate the impact of rising energy costs. 

In addition, the Tracker showed a migration from takeaways to deliveries, as delivery sales in March were 6.3% ahead of March 2025. The value of takeaway and click-and-collect orders fell by 8.6%, representing the 12th successive month of negative growth for the takeaway sector.

Takeaways generated 5.1% of spending with restaurants in March, while deliveries accounted for 13.5% of total spend during the same period.

Data likewise indicates some consumers have switched from at-home ordering to eating out, as dine-in sales for restaurant groups saw a modest year-on-year increase.

Total sales growth, including new restaurant openings and new delivery launches, reached 11.8% in March. This suggests expansion is driving revenue.

Karl Chessell, director at NIQ, said: “Whether eating out or ordering in, consumers have clearly been putting a tight lid on their spending in the first quarter of 2026.

“Slow organic growth means restaurants are currently relying on higher prices and new openings to shore up at-home channels, and the steep drop in takeaway orders is a cause for concern.”

He added: “We are likely to see some costs rise sharply for consumers and operators alike in the next few months, and real-terms growth will continue to be very hard earned.”